>> Major funding for "Reporters Roundtable" with David Cruz is provided by RWJBarnabas health.

Let's be healthy together.

Rowan University, educating New Jersey leaders, partnering with New Jersey businesses, transforming New Jersey's future.

♪ David: Shrinks the field shrinks but the money keeps flowing as the race for governor enters a new phase.

Hey, everybody it is "Reporters Roundtable" Say hi to the panel.

The editor at politico NJ> Brent Johnson is the politics reporter for NJ events me to MP Kenneth Burns is a New Jersey reporter for WHYY.

We will get some thoughts from them in just a few minutes, but let's begin today with the survey of the field with the director of the Eagleton center at Rutgers University, Christopher Shields.

Who joins us now, Professor, welcome to the roundtable.

>> Happy to be here.

No place I would rather be.

David: That's really nice of you to say.

Thanks.

So, we have our first departure, Former Senator Ed Durr is out.

Not a surprise, I guess, he only needed $38 to unseed Steve Sweeney but he found it not quite as easy in the field of four, right?

What happens to Ed Durr?

>> I think part of the lesson we will talk more about money in a little bit, but the gubernatorial races are different from state Senate races.

It is very expensive, very difficult to run for governor.

In New Jersey they also raise to the number of signatures that you need this year in order to qualify for the ballot.

So I don't think it was a huge shock to see Ed Durr not officially file to run in the race.

But yeah, the biggest lesson is the gubernatorial races are very different from state Senate even when you're running against an ally of the state Senate like Steve Sweeney.

David: Next, Sean Spiller on the Democratic side.

The campaign with the most money failed to raise enough of his own for matching funds.

♪ irony ♪ No debate stage either for him.

It is a blow for this campaign, is it not?

>> It absolutely is, I think.

He will position himself now even more as an outsider, you know, as a grassroots candidate.

But I do not think there is any doubt it is a significant hit for the campaign.

It is very difficult to win in a primary when there are six candidates if you are not in the debate stage with the other five candidates.

I also think this is an opportunity for Spiller to establish himself as more than just the NJEA candidate and now that is much more difficult because he did not qualify for the matching funds so he was not able to sort of make that statement.

David: Yeah, I mean, there is no real kind of identity to the campaign other than 100 flyers a week into your home and 1000 commercials per hour on your TV.

Other than that, there does not seem to be any kind of grassroots to that campaign.

>> And now much less of an opportunity to try to make that case, right?

Because he does not have access to the debates, which are such an important part of particularly I think the primary campaign, when it is hard to get people's attention, as we had to June -- we head to June, because people are not quite as a ready, that may be different this year than most years.

I do not know it is a fail for the campaign in part because he's is so well-funded by his PAC.

But I think it makes it much more difficult than it was a couple weeks ago.

David: It does certainly come as you reference, highlight the power of money, secret money, silent money, outside money.

There is a PAC for every flavor.

Spiller is not the only one.

Gottheimer is believed to be finding his own PAC with money from his congressional run.

What is the impact of these millions and millions of dollars in a race like this?

>> Makes a significant impact and all candidates have them.

That is where the real money is in the PACs.

We talk about New Jersey being a particularly expensive state to run for governor.

We are stuck here between New York and Philadelphia.

Very expensive media markets.

These, whether it is the direct mail outs we are talking about, the TV advertisements, they are very expensive.

And in order to compete on that landscape and statewide in New Jersey, and a sense it is not a big state, but in other ways it is.

North to south, there is a lot of distance to cover, a lot of different areas in New Jersey to get to.

So in order to sort of actually cover the state you need a lot of money.

These PACs allow the candidates to raise a lot of money but still qualify for matching funds and use matching funds for their own personal campaigns.

Vanessa -- as the PACs, it is like an arms race.

Each candidate has to compete at that level or else they cannot compete with our competition.

So it is sort of this cycle that continues and continues, and these gubernatorial races get more and more expensive, which makes money more and more important every time.

David: Let's get a panel question in here.

Brent, you had a question.

>> Yeah, right now you see Republican, on the Republican side of the race people talking about how Donald Trump did very well here last year.

We're also seeing his poll numbers are starting to drop in the state.

How much in effect do you think Trump will have on the race?

>> I think to some extent it depends on who the Republican nominee is.

I think it is Bill Spadea you see a much different relationship between the campaign and the present than say John Bramnick.

So Cemex -- to some extent it will depend on that.

I also think while it is certainly true that Donald Trump did better in New Jersey in 2024 than he did in 2020, and you can say that Donald Trump's got more popular among New Jersey Republicans that he was four years ago, I'm not sure the same is true among New Jersey Democrats.

And you do have this tendency in New Jersey, we have our gubernatorial race the year after the presidential race and there is often a backlash effect where a that won the presidential race before tends to lose the going to toil race and part of that is because the president is in the news, and there is a response to what the president is doing.

I think as you see his numbers drop a little bit in New Jersey, that's probably good news, or at least heartening news for some of the Democratic candidates who will try to use that to run against Trump I think as they get into the general election.

David: We should note this week that Jack Ciattarelli posted photos of himself with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, so they are still counting both he and Spadea are counting on a Trump endorsement are hoping for one and the primary which would be helpful for them at least right now.

Meanwhile Democrats are getting ready for the debates.

Those will be announced this week.

Can we say that Baraka is the surprise of the field right now?

>> Yeah, he is , to me.

If you'd asked me in January, excuse me or earlier in the race, I would've said that he was an interesting candidate but probably not likely to be one of the front runners.

But I think he has done a terrific job of separating himself from some of the other candidates, being more aggressive towards the Trump administration really appealing particularly to the more progressive wing of the party, to voters of color and younger voters.

I think is where he made strides.

I will tell you, I watched the first debate with the Democratic candidates with a group of students here at Rutgers and they pretty universally thought that Ras Baraka was the most impressive candidate and the candidate they did not know as much about coming in but really intrigued by.

I think he is showing a lot of that appeal that made him a pretty soon if he can Canada in this race.

Whether he wins the primary or not, I'm not sure.

But I think he is, has inserted himself into the conversation stronger.

David: Fulop is announcing his lieutenant governor announcement.

He told us on Chat Box it will be a woman.

A, that is kind of early to announce your lieutenant governor and B, all of these candidates have to find a match, right?

They have GOT to show X to the Y, no?

>> Much like with Vice President, you're looking for someone who can fill a gap, maybe that you have in your campaign.

Whether with a particular demographic or something if you're missing something in your background that you think people will want to see in a governor.

You are trying to find someone as your running made who can fill that gap, who can sort of make that argument to voters.

Yeah, it is funny New Jersey we are sort of figuring out lieutenant governor.

We have not had very many of them.

The position has not been around for very long.

How much impact it actually has in the race I'm not sure.

I doubt that many people will base their vote on who lieutenant governor, who the candidate chooses as their writing make.

-- their running mate.

For Fulop, if nothing else, it is a way to enter the new cycle.

It will be a story when he does make this announcement and it will remind people a lot of this is about name recognition right now for the Democratic candidates, so it is an opportunity for him to sort of, to be on your programs and some of the other programs and get his name out there a little bit more to make sure that people in South Jersey know who he is.

David: The clock is starting to kick a little faster.

Kristoffer Shields is the director at Rikers.

Thanks for coming on.

Panel, Dustin, Kenny, Brent, welcome back to you part let's dispense with Durr, an idea whose time has come and gone, yes?

>> for Durr, yeah, his time was in 2021 when he won I think.

That is when he vaulted tuned national fame beating Steve Sweeney.

After that, he got beat and he really flamed out.

I do not know if he was ever really serious pretty did not show any signs of seriousness organizationally, financially, in this governor's race, I think maybe he was trying to ride on the name recognition from 2021 and see if he could pull it off a second time and it just wasn't there.

David: And he was left Trump iest of the Trumpers.

Brent, it costs more to run for governor in the field of four.

>> Yeah, as the professor mentioned, it is a really expensive place to do business if you are a politician, at least at the statewide level.

We have no major network television here.

So, if you want to get attention you have to buy New York and Philadelphia media outlets.

It is not surprising even a candidate like Steve Fulop in the progressive area and running a more grassroots style campaign the he has to spend $3 million to get noticed.

David: he was the Trumpiest of the Trumpers, was that one too many?

>> I it was.

In 2021 if he did not have Phil Rizzo, Jack Ciattarelli would've, if they did not coalesce around one or the other, you would've had, you would not have Jack Ciattarelli as a nominee that you.

No surprise that Durr was going to back Spadea.

Also I remember the midterms in 2023 going down to the district to see what his chances are, and a handful of people I spoke with, they were not all that excited about Durr anymore.

So it was a lot of height but no real accomplishments that anybody can mention other than he ousted the most powerful Democrat in New Jersey at the time.

David: hard-Durr than he thought.

>> Exactly.

David: Miller also made news, not qualifying for matching funds.

Does it suggest anything about his campaign, Brenet?

t?

>> Yeah, it is a very unusual campaign.

His campaign is technically raising no money.

And he is getting all of his money from his PAC funded by the NJEA, his employer.

That helps with getting your name out with mailers and billboards and advertisements slotting your television, but it means he will not be on the debate stage.

I do not know much hot -- how much that will hurt them if people are turning into these debates.

The idea is that as a place for everyone to see candidates IN ONE place, it doesn't help them.

But that is a new world order and the way his Cay campaign is being run.

David: Kenny, what about that, the impact of his missing the debates?

>> It's going to come I think it is going to hurt.

I think especially in the age we're in politically not just nationally but in New Jersey and is often mentioned already, you have to go to New York or Philadelphia for media buys.

And for the longest time since I moved to the state, Sean Spiller was the voice of education.

Well, you have to use media messaging to overcome that.

And you need more than billboards and those billboards have been out for several months now.

Spiller governor, Spiller for governor but we have to go beyond that and the only way to do that is to buy tv.

I you do not have the money to buy ad space in either market, you will not run anywhere, you're just not, especially as media centric as our politics are these days.

David: Dustin, we've mentioned several times how Spiller has literally tens of millions of dollars supporting him.

Gottheimer, Fulop, Sherrill all of them have PAC money behind them.

Is there someone in the race that could outrace anyone else?

>> Among that group?

No, I don't think so.

Gottheimer, you know has endless amounts of money and capabilities to raise amounts of money as he has proven over the years.

Still, we are heading into the first week of April.

It is still fairly early, and given the amount of money that Gottheimer does have, he can hold on to it and start plowing a ton of it closer to the primary date.

David: Good point.

On the GOP side, Jack Ciattarelli won the Trump picture of the week award but he also got endorsement from conservative state senators like Mike Testa and Joe open Osseo.

-- Joe Pinacio.

They are supposed to be his weak spot, the Right.

This is a good week for him.

>> It was a good week but I'm also wondering, is it more of an endorsement of Jack Ciattarelli or a dislike of Bill Spadea?

I go back and forth on that.

I mean, Spadea let's not kid ourselves, he is a name known throughout the state because of the radio show.

But as far as whether or not he will get the nomination, that remains to be seen.

I, ugh, media people do not necessarily make the best candidates.

We have seen on the Democratic and Republican side, to be honest.

But, at the end of the day, it is going to come down to who oppose it, who pushes those button in June and right now there is still a lane for Bremner to show up at people do not want anything to do with Trump whether it is Jack Ciattarelli or Bill Spadea they want a traditional New Jersey conservative.

David: Would you say, or could you say that the impact of that radio show is a bit, um, less than we think because it does not really reach across the state.

>> It doesn't.

I think we should explain that outside of streaming, the actual signal Oma cover Central Jersey.

It gets down to Philadelphia.

And then it gets into Newark, but outside of that, not many people outside of streaming can hear his radio show.

Whether it's, it might be a little overhyped but it is just enough for people to know who he is and also keep in mind, Spadea actually had a TV show they errored on the Fox affiliates in New York and Philadelphia but Bill Spadea has a media presence outside of his radio show that is recognizable.

As far as whether it is the daily discourse for the entire state of New Jersey, meh.

I'm just being honest.

David: Ram this is closer to -- Brenda is closer to Durr than Jack Ciattarelli in terms of name recognition.

Any sign that he may be thinking about dropping out?

>> No.

I think John is in it for the long haul.

At least it seems like it.

He has the ability to raise money.

He has also done this many times before, he has ran races before.

I guess the hope there is that if Trump's polling continues to drop maybe he has a lane in the primary.

There are problem is the Republican base is very supportive of Donald Trump.

You hear Democrats say he is the Republican they do not want to face in the journal because he's a traditional kind of Republican.

Governor Murphy told me a few weeks ago that Bramnick's who Democrats would not want to face.

His hope is getting to the general election.

Will he get there?

>> Also, keep in mind, like I alluded to earlier, Bramnick has a lane that is an actual alternative message.

Prior to his dropping out, Durr and Spadea were a Trumpers.

And Jack Ciattarelli.

Yeah, that was one too many.

But right neck has the alternative message that can appeal to a lot of people that do not like Trump.

Remember Trump is still not that popular in New Jersey despite his performance last year.

All right, budget season is on.

As we move on.

David: Uncertainty is the watchword this year.

Lots of groups testifying, looking for their cards to be reinstated.

The federal Department of Health and Human Services facing massive cuts.

Medicaid in the crosshairs.

And this morning from Senate Budget Committee Chairman Paul Sorrel.

>> The biggest unknown is what will happen to our federal funding, especially with regards to Medicaid and higher education.

And education.

So, there is a lot of moving parts here.

I have been doing this a long time.

It is my 16th year as budget chair.

And the uncertain here I've never seen so much uncertainty heading into our budget deliberations.

Unfortunately, we may not find out our federal cuts until after June 30.

So we may have to reconvene later this year.

David: Dustin, that sounds ominous, no?

>> That might be putting it delicately, actually.

I can see a scenario where, again, playing back to it, tying it back to the governor's race, a scenario where the economy and the budget is in such dire straits that it could work for somebody who you would not think like Chris Christie won in 2009 by a hair, basically.

Wasn't all because of the economy but that was a big part of it.

And I can also see a scenario similar to Covid when we had an emergency budget for lack of a better term.

We don't have a cushion here, even though we have a relatively sizable surplus of like $6 billion.

But the Senate president said this recently to reporters, they just cannot absorb that.

And I think that his been acknowledged across the board.

I think the governor's race could come down to what happens if there are these massive cuts.

And that could be a gamechanger to use a Murphy term.

David: Kenny, this is a Democratic budget.

They can blame the federal government all they want, but voters here, they do not want to hear that.

>> They don't.

And clearly Sarlo is in his lane, because he has done this for a long time.

And to flashback to my first appearance on the show, this is where we are as far as federal funding.

AS far as getting federal funding from Washington to make the numbers work.

It's on the table whether we going to this next year trying to figure out fiscal year 2026 because of all the different moving parts and then on the top of that remember that we have court cases being heard across the country as far as whether or not the Trump Administration can unilaterally cut departments, cut funding and end funding.

A lot of moving parts.

David: Brent, having to come back in late 2025 or early 2026 is worse than a shut down.

>> Yeah, because that would draw attention just as they are getting to the governor's race.

I keep going back to the Democratic point, yes Trump is volatile and who knows what kind of wildcard affect he will have on the governor's race?

But the Democrats are feeling the pressure that they don't feel very popular and even Democrats are privately saying this feels like a Republican year.

The budget situation could add to that or, but again, with Trump the line you always hear about Trump is once you think you know what he's going to do you don't know what is going to do.

So, uncertainty really is the cash word here.

A lot of things could happen over the coming months.

David: There is a Stockton pull out this week this is the only people more unpopular than Trump , Musk and Vance are Democratic members of Congress, which begs the question to me, we have seen Andy Kim and others out there in town halls and GOP districts.

My question is, where is Cory Booker?

Ken?

>> You're asking the guy that summer South Jersey where's Cory Booker?

David: He is persona non booker.

>> Cory Booker is still one of the most recognizable and often popular among Democrats figure in New Jersey.

He could be on the Sunday morning talk shows coming up on Sunday.

And people would watch it.

Andy Kim, I do feel like has stolen some of that thunder.

He feels like the most popular Democrat in New Jersey right now.

He's getting all the attention even though he's kind of a different kind of person then Cory Booker.

It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for Cory Booker to run for president again here he is that charismatic Democrat.

He is not as visible as he was in the past now.

>> Hopefully he is not running for president again.

David: Andy Kim for president?

>> Give it a term.

>> Let's let him figure out where the bathroom is.

I should not say that, but let him get settled in before we start speculating on that.

David: Brent, Kenny, Dustin, good to see well.

Thanks for coming on.

Thanks to Krisoffer Shields.

You may have heard of us losing friends and colleagues as net -- is never easy and we wish them all well.

But I hope you will allow me the indulgence of saying a special goodbye to our beloved stage manager Patricia.

Patty started here back when this was the old New Jersey network NJN.

She was 16 years old, too young to even drive, so her mom drove her to work every day.

She has done every job you can do in a television studio.

Lights, camera audio going back to the days when girls were not supposed to be able to do those kinds of jobs.

Over five decades she has taught us all how to be kind -- Patient, understanding, happy and loving.

She made us all better and she made this place better with her professionalism and grace.

We are a lesser organization with offer.

She is in fact operating this very camera and Patty, I hope you'll please come from behind there and take a bow.

Patty, folks.

>> Thank you.

David: And that is round table for this week.

I am David Cruz.

For Patricia and all of the hard-working crew here -- We thank you for watching.

And we'll see you next week.

>> Major funding for Reporters Roundtable with David Cruz is provided by RWJBarnabas health.

Let's be healthy together.

Rowan University, educating New Jersey leaders, partnering with New Jersey businesses, transforming New Jersey's future.

♪