[ Music ] >> The voters in Congressional District 11 have spoken.

Analilia Mejia will head to Capitol Hill after a landmark victory in last night's special election.

Hi, everyone.

I'm Joanna Gagis.

This is Reporters Roundtable.

We've got a panel of journalists with us to help break down all that's happened in the last week of New Jersey news, including especially last night.

But first, let's meet our panel.

We have Colleen O'Dea, senior writer for NJ Spotlight News, Brent Johnson, politics reporter with NJ Advanced Media, and Charlie Stile, political columnist with The Record and USA Today Network.

Well, it wasn't even close.

Analilia Mejia took the night with a 60 to 40 percent majority as of late last night.

I think the numbers hold this morning, Colleen.

What do we know in terms of who turned out for Mejia?

- Certainly, almost everybody turned out, it seems.

You know, she had roughly that lead, about a 61 percent lead going into the night, if you assume that all the Democrats were voting for her.

Now, we have some indication that not all the Democrats probably did vote for her.

We know that in a couple of very strongly Jewish parts of the district, a couple of very strongly Jewish towns, she did not do as well as one would have expected.

Her questions about her views on Israel, Hathaway, her, Joe Hathaway, her opponent calling her an anti-Semite at least one point, may have contributed to that.

But overall, I mean, you know, a 60% of the vote win.

When a lot of people were saying that this is not a radical district, this is not a very, it's more of a moderate district, certainly.

Look at Mikie Sherrill, she's more of a moderate Democrat.

So, I mean, it was just a huge win for her.

Although, of course, the district was redrawn to pull in Montclair and Maplewood, two very, very left regions in the state, towns in the state.

I just want to talk about turnout.

Brent, what do we see in terms of the overall numbers?

This is a special election.

It's on a Thursday.

A lot of people aren't even aware that these elections happen.

What do we see here?

And can you compare it to the primary night numbers at all?

Yeah, the numbers, it's as you said, it's a random Thursday with not a lot of runway.

This is a short special election to fill Mikie Sherrill's old seat after she became governor.

So not a robust major turnout, but it's really hard to compare these things.

Even for a special election was on a Thursday, which is just not what we usually say.

So it's tough to gauge.

But I mean, yes, an overwhelming victory for her with some spots where Republicans will probably say, hey, you know, we did pretty well there, especially in Livingston and Milburn, which, as Colleen said, are Jewish leaning areas.

So good night.

She's going to serve through January and we'll have a rematch of this in November, likely because they'll probably face off again for a full two year term.

So she is a far left candidate.

Hathaway tried to paint her as a socialist.

She has denied that she is a socialist.

He also, as Colleen said, called her anti-Semitic.

She's been very critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

She says criticism of the Israeli government is not the same thing as not supporting Jewish people, especially here at home.

Brent, just kind of picking up on Colleen's point, how do you think, you know, did any of those attacks hurt her at all?

Probably.

I mean, the numbers bear it out if you do the math.

You know, it's kind of a microcosm of what's going on in the Democratic Party right now.

You have loyal Jewish voters who have long voted Democratic, who now see some segment of the Democratic Party as not supporting Israel as much, and those attacks is something Hathaway played into, and maybe that played a role.

I haven't spoken to voters directly, but it does seem that there's some math to merit that argument.

Charlie, picking up on Brent's point that they will face off again in November, with a 20-point loss, does Hathaway have any runway here to gain any type of momentum, or have a do-over, or have any different outcome?

As it stands now, no.

I mean, I think the underlying engine of this whole race was this almost feral anger, excuse me, towards Donald Trump and his policies, and a fear that it's not only unhappiness with the economy and gas prices, but it's a fear of sort of a, you know, that democracy is being, is crumbling under Trump's, under the weight of Trump.

And this, remember, this is an affluent, well-educated district, and this is an issue that may not be the top issue, but it's an important one.

So unless, you know, Trump turns around his fortunes very quickly, I see no chance.

Colleen, if you're a Democrat right now, what does this win, what does the turnout signal to you as we head into the midterms?

This really for New Jersey is kind of the start of the midterm election season.

Yeah, I mean, I think it's certainly a message to Representative Tom King Jr.

in the 7th District, which is at least a neighbor of the 11th, not in parts of it.

You know, as Charlie just said, people are angry.

There is a feral anger out there.

And I think it's not just Democrats.

It is in some of the unaffiliated voters who may have tested the water with Trump in 2024, thinking that he would do something about inflation, which at that point was very high and people were upset.

But at this point, people have seen, and Democrats certainly are using in ads, the way that ICE has been acting.

They've seen no let up to inflation.

They're seeing higher gas prices, as Charlie talked about, these questions about democracy, you know, Trump threatening to change the way that New Jerseyans vote in terms of limiting vote by mail and other aspects.

So you know, I think that those are all warnings to Republicans.

I'm not sure that they go to anywhere, anyone in New Jersey other than Tom Kane, who has had, you know, tough races in the past because that district is very close.

It is a Republican-leaning district, but in a year like this, who knows what could happen.

And he's had significant fundraising numbers.

We know that.

And so there is still a whole ton of support behind Tom Kane Jr.

We're going to talk about him a little bit more in a minute.

But, Brent, I'm just curious, do you think any of the primary candidates, a lot of Democrats running on the primary in District 7, as well as in District 12 to replace Congresswoman, outgoing Congresswoman Bonnie Watson-Coleman, do you think that there are any takeaways from the way Mejia ran her race?

She was the most left candidate in that primary race originally.

Any takeaways for any of those Democratic primary candidates?

I think it depends on the area.

I mean, even though that the 11th is a suburban affluent area, she, Mejia, won a very splintered primary, and but did so with conviction.

And I think you'll see that in the 12th.

You'll see the candidates in the primary try to veer more left.

That's a more left leaning district.

The question of in the 7th district where Kaine is running, you're probably going to see more of a moderate stance among the Democrats.

Someone like Rebecca Bennett is running a more moderate campaign against a more left leaning candidate like Brian Varela.

But because the question is who is going to be the best person to beat Kaine in November because that's the whole thing.

You got to bring down Tom Kaine.

But in this environment, as we talked about, maybe the recent Rutgers poll showed Donald Trump's at 26% in the state.

Maybe it doesn't matter.

Anyone with a D next to their name could be favored based in this environment, but we won't know until we get closer.

- Charlie, let's look at what Republicans should be doing as they enter the midterms, because we saw Hathaway really openly rebuke the president on his lack of funding for Gateway.

He said he was playing politics with it.

He said he's a moderate Republican.

Now, that didn't win him the day, but I don't know that it would have won him the day if he went in as a full Trumpian.

How should Republicans be playing this, Tom Kaine in particular?

>> That's a very good question.

I think that's one that you'll probably hear in this special gathering of confederate Republicans in September that's been called for.

I think the only play they have is to distance themselves as aggressively as they can away from Trump, while mixing that with a strong message of economic populism.

And the problem with that is that he keeps stepping on their parade.

And I really see no light at the end of the tunnel until he's offshore.

I really don't.

I mean, it's, just take for example, vote by mail.

This is a small thing.

I mean, I was at the Hathaway event in Madison last week, where the local officials there are saying, "We got to get more people out.

Vote by mail.

Vote by mail."

But who's the most antagonistic voice in the nation towards vote by mail but Donald Trump?

That's just, to me, sort of a microcosm of the dilemma the party faces.

Yeah, that's a great point, and it's something that we've seen Republicans kind of back away from a bit in terms of their support, although certainly Save America has been something plenty of Republicans across the country have stood behind.

That would change a lot of our voting requirements.

Colleen, just looking in terms of process, how quickly could we see Mejia sworn in?

- You know, I actually ran into her on the way out last night, and she's ready to go.

She's hoping she'll get sworn in, she thought maybe in the next week.

I don't think that will happen because of the process.

So you've gotta let all of the mail-in ballots come in, which is next Wednesday.

They can be voted up until.

Then you've gotta give people a cured process, the time to cure their ballots if there were any mistakes.

That's another five or six days.

Then the counties finalize their votes.

The county canvassers meet.

They send it to the state.

The state board of canvassers have a deadline of May 16th to certify the election.

That could happen sooner, given that it's a Democratic state and this is a Democratic winner.

But it certainly could be somewhere into the middle of next month, I think, before she gets seated.

- And then who makes that decision?

Does that end up being the House Speaker who decides when she actually gets sworn in?

Does Jeffries jump in and weigh in there to get her in as quickly as possible?

Of course, Democrats are looking for that additional seat.

- I mean, he can, but ultimately it really is up to Mike Johnson.

So I'm not sure that Jeffries gets to have much of a say about it.

- Brent, she has not yet committed as to whether or not she will support Jeffries when she gets in.

Do you see any potential for continued or deeper fractures within the Democratic Party?

She is on the left side.

She was supported by Sanders, AOC, Elizabeth Warren.

Do you see her coming in, kind of being a disruptor in the House?

- I think there's definitely the potential for that.

I mean, I don't see the infighting of the Democratic Party slowing down.

You know, the old joke is that Republicans fall in line and Democrats eat their own.

So yeah, I think this is a debate that's going to keep raging about the future of the Democratic Party and what they have to do in the Trump years.

- I'm curious what you think.

She's been strong on some of those kind of far left policies.

How do you see that playing when she gets to the House?

Do you see her doubling down on those or do you see her becoming more of a moderate, just in terms of the way she ran her campaign, in terms of who she's been before her entree into political life?

- All of us have known Analilia for many years here because she's been a progressive advocate before she ever ran for office.

And she doesn't step away from what she believes.

She's always been very outspoken.

I don't see her changing much, but all kinds of negotiations go on once you get into Capitol Hill.

But this is kind of who she has been for a long time.

- Charlie, let's talk about District 7.

Let's go back to Congressman Kaine.

He has been out for about a month.

He's missed a lot of votes.

Just first, what do we know about his health issue?

Do we know what's going on there?

No, they've been locked down.

There's been no real details other than they expect him back soon.

He's missed more than almost two dozen votes.

And that seems to me to miss that many votes in a crucial re-election year suggests this might be something of a pretty significant thing.

But again, we don't know anything and we can't speculate.

But yeah, it remains a mystery at this point.

Let's talk, Charlie, about the balance of power in Washington right now, because we see Mejia now going down.

It's been a pretty active week.

Just fill us in in terms of who's actually resigned from the House this week, and then we'll get into where the numbers fall.

Well, I feel like Aaron Boone with the lineup card here because there's been so much shuffling in of town.

I mean, Eric Swalwell is out, Gonzalez, the Republican is out.

It seems like the Democrats appears to have a one vote net gain from all this shuffling, although there is one, I believe it's a, there's technically on a partisan rundown, you have a Republicans with a narrow three vote lead, but there is also an independent who caucuses with the Republicans.

- Yeah, that's Kevin Kiley in California.

- California, that's right.

So it's an effective four vote narrow margin, which to go back to your earlier point about seeding Analilia, I don't think Mike Johnson's going to rush to do that.

He has no incentive to seed her as soon as possible.

And I mean, he played that game last year with the Arizona woman elected in Arizona.

So we could be in for a long wait on that.

- Yeah, there are two more House members, a Democrat and a Republican, who are under investigation for various ethics concerns.

And so we could see two more, but there is parity there, at least as of now, and we don't know how that'll play out.

But to your point, if we have 218 to 214, Republicans can only lose two votes.

Well, they can only lose one, and then if they lose two, you've got a tie score there, and they're not going to be able to pass legislation in this kind of critical time before the midterms.

I would assume this is when they want to get a lot done, yes?

Yes, I think Dan Cassino made that point in Colleen's story today about the race, that this is going to redouble the pressure by Trump to get as much of his agenda squirming, squeaked through before the midterms.

And, you know, the pressure on Johnson is going to be immense.

And now he's got to do it with a narrower margin.

This is also going to empower the MAGA wing of the party, which is not, never in the mood to negotiate or compromise.

So it's a very delicate and difficult spot for him.

- Colleen, we saw just, well, let's start it this way.

There was an attempt yesterday to block an arms package to Israel, and we saw Democrats come out in a different way than they have before.

What can you tell us about how Democrats voted?

And just give us kind of the overall, how that bill ended up.

Yeah, and so one of those Democrats was Cory Booker, our own New Jersey senator, Democrat.

He has been a strong supporter of Israel and giving assistance to Israel.

He was one of 40 Democrats who voted to try to stop one of the bills.

36 tried to stop the other bill.

This was giving Israel some bulldozers, which the Democrats said that Israel was gonna be using to essentially go in and knock down homes in Palestinian areas, as well as the sale of bombs was the other sale.

Now, the sales, both of those went through.

This was just something that needed a single one vote margin, but it was certainly a change of pace for the Democrats.

And it's something that is gonna be interesting to see how it plays out in the coming election.

I mean, we do have, we talked a little bit about a few areas with large numbers of Jewish voters, how they voted in the 11th.

We do have a good size Jewish population in the state of New Jersey.

And we'll see how they vote in November for Cory Booker and whoever is running against him.

But what Dan Cassino of FDU also told me yesterday was that what we saw in 2024, when the margin in New Jersey was so close between Trump and Harris, who did, Kamala Harris, who did win, was that Democrats stayed home because they were unhappy with some of the policies, the support, not of Israel as a country, not of the Israelis as a people, but of this, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestinians.

And now, of course, we have the war, which it seems was at least that Trump was egged on by Benjamin Netanyahu.

So it's gonna be a lot of dynamics to see what happens in November as a result of that.

- And there's going to be a $200 billion package that's gonna be proposed that the Pentagon's gonna be asking for.

We know that from reporting from our Ben Hulak in Washington, D.C., and so these questions are gonna keep arising.

But Colleen, just to pick up on that point, do Democrats have to ask themselves kind of this existential question, is criticism of the Israeli government equivalent to lack of support of the Jewish people and the Israeli people, right?

I mean, it's something Mejia wrestled with in this campaign.

- Yeah, I think that obviously, each individual person has their own views on this, but I think Mejia really gave a very good response when I think you pointed it out when she talked about that, when she was asked about it.

She said, "You know, I can be an American "who questions and criticizes Donald Trump, "and that doesn't make me anti-American.

Similarly, I can oppose the policies of Benjamin Netanyahu and some of the things that he's doing and not be anti-Semitic.

I support the Jewish people.

I support the right of the state of Israel to exist.

So I think that's the message going forward that other Democrats are going to need to continue to make, you know, to kind of bring that point across."

Yeah.

Just a few minutes left, Brent.

Here at home, we've got a little controversy this week when it comes to the World Cup.

We've seen some numbers floated in terms of what ticket prices would be if you're going to take the train between New York and New Jersey.

Sticker shock, it's $100 a ticket has been proposed.

And FIFA is pushing back at this, and there might be a little battle here now between FIFA and Governor Sherrill.

What can you tell us about kind of the deal that was struck and where all this could fall?

Yeah, it seems to be a fight going on between the international soccer organization and the New Jersey governor two months before games start.

So this is one of the big first brouhaha's of her governorship.

So basically, yes, she is saying that they have that they will have a hundred dollar or more train tickets because the cost is not going to be shouldered by the state for the forty eight million dollars she said it's going to cost to run transportation.

Or she said FIFA can can fork up the money that they're making billions off this tournament.

And they can fund transportation.

FIFA is saying that they already made an agreement years ago that that would not be the case and that that's you know, there would be other agreements to run transportation.

They were saying they're surprised at her comments.

But this this tournament was brought here by Governor Phil Murphy.

He fought hard for it and landed in 2024.

And he really pushed.

He's a soccer fanatic.

He pushed for it.

And she inherited this, as she said.

Now she's saying that, you know, there was a lot of preparation done, but we're still getting a sense of what this is going to cost.

So who knows whether this is going to boil over in the two months?

But, you know, we have the world's largest sporting event, whether you like soccer or not.

I'm more of a baseball guy.

But it's coming here whether you like it or not.

So it'll be interesting to see if FIFA gets along with Sherrill.

It sure will.

Like you said, could be the first brouhaha of this Sherrill campaign.

We got to leave it there.

Colleen, Brent, Charlie, thank you all for being with us today.

You can follow me on Instagram at JoannaGagisNJ and go ahead and scan that QR code on your screen to see more episodes of Roundtable.

For all the crew here at Gateway Center in downtown Newark, I'm Joanna Gagis.

Thanks for being with us.

Have a great weekend.

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